Tag Archives: betting

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2016 Ronaldo’s Magic Year

2008

Goals: 35 (34 for club; one for country)
Games: 58 (50 for club; eight for country)

This was the year then-Manchester United winger Cristiano Ronaldo really emerged as a true world-class talent — with 35 goals in 58 games in all competitions for club and country.

Ronaldo turned 23 early in 2008 and went on to a clean sweep of the young and senior PFA and FWA Player of the Year prizes in England, win a first Golden Shoe as Europe’s top scorer for 2007-08 and then take his first Ballon d’Or and FIFA World Player of the Year awards.

There were goals in the round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal and final as United won the Champions League [although he missed a penalty in the decisive shootout against Chelsea]. There were also persistent rumours about a move to Real Madrid, although that transfer was postponed for 12 months.

2009

Goals: 30 (29 for club; one for country)
Games: 49 (42 for club; seven for country)

Ronaldo began 2009 by again scoring in each of the Champions League knockout rounds, before being frustrated as United were beaten in the final by Lionel Messi’s Barcelona. He did however win a third straight Premier League title before joining Madrid in a world record £80 million transfer.

On arrival at the Bernabeu, he became the first player to score in each of his first four games for Los Blancos, but injuries and some issues settling in Spain meant that he finished 2009 with *just* 30 goals in 49 games across all competitions. And he was *just* second in the year’s Ballon d’Or vote behind Messi.

So far in 2016, Ronaldo has scored 51 goals in 54 games and won the Champions League and Euro 2016.

2010

Goals: 48 (45 for club; three for country)
Games: 59 (48 for club; 11 for country)

Ronaldo’s first season in Spain ended without a trophy, but he was boosted by fellow countryman Jose Mourinho arriving as coach at the Bernabeu. In October he scored four times in a game for the first time, against Racing, as he accelerated towards a final total of 48 goals in 59 games over the calendar year — 45 for Madrid and three for Portugal.

Yet there was also disappointment at the World Cup in South Africa, where Portugal lost out to eventual winners Spain in the round of 16 — and Ronaldo was pushed off the Ballon d’Or podium as Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta were recognised alongside clubmate Messi.

2011

Goals: 60 (53 for club; seven for country)
Games: 60 (52 for club; eight for country)
Shots: 300 (121 on goal; 16.0 percent accuracy)
Assists: 15
Chances: 78 (1.8 per game)

2011 saw Ronaldo ramp up his goal scoring for both club and country, reaching the 60-goal mark for the first time in his career — including 53 in 52 Real Madrid games and seven in eight for Portugal.

Personally, he won both a first La Liga Pichichi prize and a second European Golden Shoe (his first had been with Manchester United) — and, at the age of 26, he became the first player ever to score 40 times in a Spanish top flight season.

2012

Goals: 63 (58 for club; five for country)
Games: 71 (58 for club; 13 for country)
Shots: 366 (154 on goal; 14.5 percent accuracy)
Assists: 11
Chances: 91 (1.8 per game)

The next year saw Ronaldo score 63 goals, 58 for Madrid and five for Portugal, in a total of 71 games — the most matches he has managed in one season.

That May brought success for Jose Mourinho’s Madrid team in La Liga, the only Spanish title Ronaldo has yet won, although nemesis Lionel Messi nabbed the Pichichi and Ballon d’Or awards again as the Argentine somehow managed an incredible 91 goals all season.

Looking just at La Liga and the Champions League — 2012 was the year in which Ronaldo took most shots [366] and had the most chances [91]. Although he was also relatively wayward as just 14.5 percent of his shots hit the net.

2013

Goals: 69 (59 for club; 10 for country)
Games: 59 (50 for club; nine for country)
Shots: 313 (134 on goal; 16.9 percent accuracy)
Assists: 13
Chances: 75 (1.7 per game)

While the first half of 2013 saw Ronaldo finish as the Champions League top scorer for a second time, it was not a happy time at the Bernabeu due to Mourinho leaving as coach in May.

Things turned around under new coach Carlo Ancelotti, and Ronaldo ended the year in probably the best form of his entire career — including a wonderful hat trick in the 2014 World Cup playoff against Sweden — earning his second Ballon d’Or trophy. He finished with a total of 69 goals in 60 appearances for club and country, his highest year-end goal tally, and appeared to be scoring more goals from fewer attempts.

Ronaldo won the 2014 Ballon d’Or, the third time he has claimed the award

2014

Goals: 61 (56 for club; five for country)
Games: 60 (51 for club; nine for country)
Shots 266 (138 on goal; 19.2 percent accuracy)
Assists: 16
Chances: 80 (2.0 per game)

Madrid reached their holy grail of La Decima and a 10th European Cup win, with Ronaldo famously removing his jersey after scoring a late penalty in a 4-1 extra-time win over Atletico. He also set a new record of 17 goals in one Champions League season.

His total goals over this 12-month period were 61 — 56 in 51 games for Madrid and five in nine for Portugal — with the total slightly down from the previous year. But 2014 saw his highest ever chances per game (2.0) across La Liga and the UCL as well as most shots on target (138) and a career best conversion rate (19.2 percent).

Injury hampered his contribution — especially during Portugal’s early World Cup exit as they failed to advance from Group G — but when he was fit, this was peak Ronaldo. The stats certainly show how he earned his third Ballon d’Or prize.

2015

Goals: 57 (54 for club; three for country)
Games: 57 (52 for club; five for country)
Shots: 329 (127 on goal; 16.1 percent accuracy)
Assists: 17
Chances: 79 (1.6 per game)

It was an up-and-down year for Ronaldo, with Madrid failing to win any trophies. But he finished as joint-top scorer in the Champions League (alongside Messi and Neymar with 10) and won both the 2014-15 La Liga Pichichi and European Golden Shoe trophies.

By December, he made it to 57 goals for club and country over 57 games — 54 in 52 for Madrid, and three in five for Portugal. Looking at the stats for La Liga and the Champions League, after turning 30, he was again taking more shots than the previous year (329 in total) but his conversation rate had fallen to 16.1 percent.

2015 also saw some barren spells followed by gluts — with five-goal hauls against both Granada and Espanyol, but by the autumn he had overtaken Raul Gonzalez to become Madrid’s all-time leading goal scorer. Raul had scored 323 in 741 games; Ronaldo managed 324 in just 310.

Cristiano Ronaldo is the winner of the 2016 Ballon d’Or, the fourth time he has received the award.

2016

Goals: 51 (38 for club; 13 for country)
Games: 54 (41 for club; 13 for country)
Shots: 258 (108 on goal; 14.7 percent accuracy)
Assists: 14
Chances: 59 (1.4 per game)

In early November, Ronaldo signed his new long-term deal at Madrid and proclaimed it to be his best year. In terms of team trophies, it most certainly has been — with Madrid winning the Champions League and Portugal stunning even themselves by winning Euro 2016.

This has also been Ronaldo’s best scoring year for Portugal — as he netted 13 times in 13 games for his country. But across La Liga and the Champions League, this has been his lowest scoring year since 2008. Injury has been a factor in this — his 38 La Liga and UCL goals have come in just 41 club games — but perhaps more worrying as he nears 32 years of age is that he is also getting the lowest tally for chances per game (1.4).

*Stats compiled by ESPN Stats & Info and Dermot Corrigan (ESPN)

 

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The US versus the UK betting market

The United States has a very large gambling market. Las Vegas in Nevada is one of the most famous gambling locations in the world and almost every state in the U.S. has its own casino. However, when it comes to sports betting, the situation isn’t so bright. Nevada, Oregon, Montana, and Delaware are the only four states in which sport betting is allowed and that is only due to special laws. New Jersey famously tried to join the sports betting states and failed after athletic leagues went to court to overrule their state legislation. However, the battle is not over. Despite being considered a Western, liberal country, the U.S., officially, is on the conservative side when it comes to gambling.

However, this says nothing about the demand for sports betting in the U.S. Many Americans simply turn to the internet for their sports betting needs. Online betting in the U.S. started in 1996, and became a huge market. There are no official numbers about the size of the market but modest estimate i around 12 billion dollars, while pretentious estimates are as high as 400 billion dollars. This stands in stark contrast to the second-largest gambling market after the U.S. – the U.K. In the United Kingdom sports betting have been legal since the 1960s. There are around 9000 betting shops in the U.K. where people can place bets with a licensed bookmaker. Yet the U.K. gambling market is estimated at around 6 billion pounds, a modest number in comparison to the U.S. The differences in market size can stem from different causes such as the much larger population of the U.S. the fact that British are much more careful spenders then American, and that they spend less time on the internet.

Legally, online sports betting in the U.S. is a gray area when it comes to individual people placing online sports bets. The enforcement of laws against online gambling focus mainly on those who process gambling transactions and operators that offer online gambling transactions to U.S. gamblers. The simple gambler isn’t affected by these laws; in fact, no one in America ever went to jail because of online gambling. Despite the different arguments for legalizing sports betting in the U.S., which include the substantial monetary profit for the country, it seems that it won’t happen any time soon. Part of the reason for this is the resistance of athletic leagues to legalization, because they fear it will hurt the integrity of the games themselves.

Despite their athletic leagues’ resistance to legalizing sports betting, the online betting industry continues to bloom in America. In fact, many Americans see betting on a game as an integral part of their sport experience. For example, the most watched sporting event in the U.S., the super bowl, is also a record-breaker when it comes to bets. 4.2 billion dollars were placed in bets on the super bowl 50 (2015), most of it was placed illegally.

The Super bowl is a great example of the American betting market. The most dominant sport in the U.S. when it comes to betting is football, followed by baseball, basketball and hockey. While for our friends across the pond, the most popular sport by far is soccer, followed by tennis and horse racing. This creates two distinct sports betting markets.

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Formula 1 and Betting

Globally 425 million people are known to watch Formula 1 races on television a figure which could possibly be boosted by an additional 40% when taking into account people viewing unaccountably via illegal online streams.

No, its audience is not going to numerically compete with World Cup Soccer but it dwarfs the Superbowl’s 120 million viewers the vast majority of which cannot legally bet on the event anyway.

The biggest question is why online bookmakers haven’t embraced the sport with open arms.  After all, research indicates the betting account of a typical Formula 1 fans is worth three times that of a traditionally sourced punter.

Considering eighty percent of the average online bookmaker’s profits come from just twenty percent of their customers, you would imagine the DHL, Allianz and UBS signage would have been torn down long ago and replaced by the likes of Bet365 and Betfair/Paddy Power  …the latest conglomerate seeking to take over the online gambling world.

Eurobet.com made a big effort with Formula 1 back in 2001 sponsoring the TWR Arrows Team.  But they were ahead of their time.  As were Interwetten, the first company to offer online betting in 1997.  Their flirtation with F1 came in 2012 when they had a few small stickers on the Lotus cars for a few races.

But ours is not to question.  As punters, ours is to take advantage and this is a sport which offers ample betting opportunities within an industry which seemingly employs a limited number of people to recognise statistical techniques when devising their betting markets.

In fact, F1 betting markets ultimately seem to be driven by a good old-fashioned weight of money which pours in on the back of consequences and commentator’s statements.

The consequences include a Ferrari qualifying anywhere near the front of the starting grid at the Italian Grand Prix. The passionate Italian’s always pour their Euro’s on their beloved red cars at prices woefully short of the true probability of them prevailing.

 

Of course, this revolves around in-running markets, which is a real interesting area of F1 punting.  In the very best traditions of Betfair be very aware, what is described as live coverage is not live more often than not.  There is always a lag, in the UK it ranges between 4sec and 8sec.  Overseas broadcasters deliver their pictures with an even greater delay, up to 30sec in some instances.

Of course, there are very few domestic in-play punters that are not aware of this.  But the 422.5 million other viewers who may decide to place an in-play race bet at any time are probably not so street-wise. But the bookmakers are often caught unaware as quick-fingered diligent punters can often find an angle courtesy of social media.

Put simply, Twitter is an invaluable information feed which can be used in an identical fashion to stock market traders eagerly awaiting news and trading figures down high-speed news wires.

Case in point:  Lewis Hamilton needing a gearbox change following a practice session at the 2012 Chinese Grand Prix.  His team announced the component change, which resulted in a mandatory five-place grid penalty, as soon as they were aware of the problem.

But time-zone differences meant the British bookmaking odds compilers were sound asleep when the news the race favorite had been handed a crippling disadvantage was made public …and their betting markets remained unchanged for hours.

Without knowing the first thing about Formula 1 racing, it is very clear there is money to be made using nothing more than common sense.  In fact having no interest in or knowledge of F1, or any other sport you bet on, is a huge benefit.

Most punters would be better punters if subconscious preconceived ideas were removed from their psyche.  We all have favorite teams, jockey’s, trainers, racecourses etc and we are all guilty of being influenced by those likes (and dislikes). So use every tool in your box when punting on F1.  This includes employing an accurate weather forecaster.

As it stands the major firms price up the proceeding F1 race moments after the cars cross the line but that race could be two or three weeks away.  The markets normally remain pretty much unchanged until the Tuesday before the race.  By that time, you might have just been made aware of a tropical storm which is due to land on the racetrack.

Wet conditions, just like a change in going for a racehorse, can make the form book redundant.

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The 11 winning rules of betting


#1 Don’t Bet More Than You Can Afford To Lose
It’s the simplest of advices and the most pertinent to any punter. Betting can be approached as another form of entertainment that you spend your money on. You’d never book a £200 per night hotel room, when you could only afford a £100 one, and so you should approach betting with this one governing factor always to the fore. Bet within your means.

#2 Don’t Increase Your Stake After Winning
Unless you are adopting a specific betting method or staking plan, never arbitrarily increase your stake just because you’ve won. Betting shop mugs do this all the time and with very few exceptions their money will only go one way – back to the bookie.

#3 Treat Your Betting As a Business – Your Bookie Does
Businesses can increase profit by minimizing losses and outlay. Your bookie does this, and so should you. The one thing you are guaranteed to do when betting is back a loser. Finding ways to cut down on the losers will greatly affect your potential to make profit.

#4 Don’t Follow The Money
Unless you are in on a gamble right at the start, by the time you get to know where the money’s going all the best prices will be gone. If you dive in at that stage you could very likely be betting at no value or even negative value (the price is shorter than the selection’s actual chances).

#5 Use A Betting Bank
If you’re just betting from what available cash you have in your pocket at any given time you are unlikely to have much control over your betting. Lack of control is one of the quickest ways to get skint. A betting bank lets you know how much you have to bet with, helps you control stakes, and more importantly can let you see whether you are winning or not (in conjuction with #7 and #8 also)

#6 Use A Staking Plan
Using a Staking Plan is a great way to control your betting. Used in conjunction with #6 and #7 (Betting Bank and Recording Bets) this will help you become a smarter punter, one who is control of his/her betting. It won’t guarantee to make you a profit but it should help you in one respect – to cut down on those silly unnecessary bets. Level Stakes is the most popular Staking Plan and a very sensible one too, but there are others. Bank Percentage Plan, Sequence Plan, and others.

#7 Specialize In Just A Few Sports
Bookies will have you betting on everything from the US Election to the X-Factor. One of the reasons they offer so much is because it’s profitable to them. One of the punter’s best tactics is to specialize. Most of us know a varied amount about one or two sports, so when it comes to betting a major plus is to do the research and become more expert in just a few sports. That can give you an edge the bookies don’t have, simply because their oddsmakers have to cover everything. By specialising you gain an advantage, and can better spot potentially good bets.

#8 Don’t Panic In A Losing Streak
As stated previously you are guaranteed to back losers, but what happens when you start to back loser after loser? It’s at this point that the novice or undisciplined punter can start to panic, to question their methods, to start changing methods, and start chasing losses. All of these you must avoid. If you’re organized, have confidence in your methods, and you have a properly sized betting bank to allow for a losing streak, stick with the plan. Stay calm and don’t waiver from your methods. The dreaded losing run is all too familiar to all of us. It’s a part of betting. [**caveat – methods of course can be changed under the correct circumstances, just not under the panic of a losing streak because you’re not best placed to make the right judgements]

#9 Don’t Chase Losses
This can be read in conjunction with #12 Don’t Panic In A Losing Streak. Chasing losses is one of the main contributions to losing made by punters. When the main bet or bets of the day go down, some punters can’t accept a losing day and so go off in search of winners, despite the fact that their earlier studies dismissed the remainder for having the potential for winners. Or a punter bets money he/she couldn’t really afford to lose, then go off in a futile attempt to recoup the loss, and thereby losing more. Know when to walk away and call it a day.

#10 Don’t Look For A Bet, Wait For One
You don’t have to have a bet. Sure, we all like the thrill of a bet and watching its progress, but the punters who tend to lose more are the ones who can’t resist having that thrill, and therefore go repeatedly looking for a bet they wouldn’t normally have done. You’ll see them in betting shops all the time, moving from one race to the next, taking only the few precious seconds there now are between races to try to find a selection. The disciplined punter will have his methods, and if those methods don’t pinpoint a bet on a particular day they won’t go looking for one – they’ll do the right thing and wait till the next day.

#11 Singles Offer The Best Profit Potential
This is one of the obvious ones to the more experienced punter, but to the novice or to those lured in by the ‘bonuses’ and ‘enhancements’ of the ‘big-money’ bets that the bookies keep pushing to your attention (there’s a reason why they keep advertising these bets), it may not be so obvious.

You won’t win big-money with singles, that’s true. But let’s face it how many of you out there have won big-money with multiple bets? With singles you don’t face the furstrating situation where you can lose it. With singles, you don’t get a winner only to have wait on having another winner to have it pay off for you.

Bookies don’t like you betting singles, that’s why you’ll rarely see them advertising them. Singles allows you to shop around for the best price and give yourself the best chance of profit. Multiple bets are for the dreamers.

 

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The Betting Overround

The Overround

The fair odds for selecting any particular card from a standard deck of 52 are 51/1, with a probability of 0.0192 or 1.92%. As one might expect, the sum of probabilities for all cards will be 52 x 0.0192, which equals 1 or 100%. To gain an edge over the punter, a bookmaker will reduce those odds, for example to 48/1. These odds are then “unfair”, since their associated probability is now higher, at 0.0204 or 2.04%, than the true chance of picking any particular card. The sum of the probabilities for all cards is now 52 x 0.0204, that is 1.061 or 106.1%. Mathematically, of course, the sum of probabilities for all possibilities must be 1.00 or 100%. The difference between this and the bookmaker’s sum of probabilities represents the bookmaker’s profit margin. A book with a total percentage over 100 is said to be overround. In the case just mentioned, the book is overround by 6.1%. This may be expressed by saying that the overround is 106.1%, or 1.061 as a decimal. That is, for every 100 units paid out to punters, the bookmaker can expect to take 106.1, or a profit of 6.1% on turnover. If a bookmaker offered 9/2 for numbers 1 through to 6 from a throw of a standard 6-sided dice, the overround would be 109.1% (1.091).

Since the true probabilities associated with card drawing or dice rolling are mathematically fixed, a punter would be very unwise to bet at the unfair odds offered by a bookmaker. Initially he may be lucky, but over the long term he would find himself at a loss, the magnitude determined by the size of the overround. In view of this, it is remarkable how many gamblers are still happy to place bets on such games at a casino. When an edge is achievable, for example through card counting, the casino’s regulations will usually prevent such a professional from benefiting from his knowledge. In sports betting, however, the fair odds of a particular event occurring cannot be known exactly, and this is perhaps why so many punters, with a belief that they know more than the bookmakers, are prepared to accept the disadvantage that they face through the overround. For his chosen bets, the punter will hope that the bookmaker has made a mistake in the estimation of the fair odds, allowing him to overcome this disadvantage.

With fixed odds for 3 possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is about 111 to 112%, although some Internet bookmakers may go as high as 118% for the less popular European football leagues. Calculating the overround for any book is a simple task of summing the inverse of the home, draw and away odds and multiplying by 100%. Here, the inverse of the decimal odds for one result, of course, is the bookmaker’s (unfair) estimation of the probability of that result occurring. Of course, whether the bookmaker’s idea is accurate about what exactly the true chance of a particular result occurring is, is open to debate. If his customer disagrees, there may be an opportunity for him to make a profit, provided he is more accurate in estimating the true chance of an outcome than the bookmaker.

Other types of bets attract different overrounds, and it is usually the case that the greater the number of possible outcomes to a sporting event or one of its elements, the greater the bookmaker’s overround. The correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130 to 160%, depending on the bookmaker. In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are usually only 2 possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attract overrounds that are commonly less than 110%.

Punters with a keen interest in keeping the bookmaker’s disadvantage to a minimum may very well be attracted to other 2-way betting opportunities. Asian handicap betting, where the draw is eliminated, generally has a low overround, sometimes as little as 106%. In addition to total goals betting and Asian handicap in football, match bets in tennis, snooker, darts, and in fact any two-player sport where there is no possibility of the draw offer excellent betting opportunities. Standard handicap and total points betting in American sports like basketball, ice hockey and American Football have some of the smallest overrounds available, sometimes even as low as 103 or 104%.

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The 7 principles of gambling

Principle 1: The Discipline of Discipline

It doesn’t matter what type of gambling activity you get involved in.If you enter into gambling transactions without discipline then you are sure to reduce your chances of winning consistently. Casinos I have visited in the UK offer free alcohol when you are gambling because they want you to lose your discipline, and they know that getting you drunk is the easiest way to do it.

Principle 2: Never Chase Losses, Never

If you are betting in-play and events are unfolding against you, there is a temptation to pour more money into the same event in order to get back what you are standing to lose. This tactic only increases the chances that you will lose more. Likewise, adopting the strategy after a loss that you must recoup your losses by betting more on the next event is also a recipe for disaster.

Principle 3: Staking Bank

The one certain thing is that you will never win all of your transactions and some losses are inevitable. Managing your bankroll correctly means that these losing transactions get swallowed up in the big picture but are not noticed in the long run. No single transaction should eat more than 10-15% of your starting bankroll, or the maximum below this that you set yourself. Failure to manage your bankroll correctly is symptomatic of greed. Most gamblers have no structure to their betting activity and place bets without thought to how much they may lose or how much they are trying to win.


Principle 4: Learn to walk away, winner or loser

How you cope with losses plays a huge part in how successful you will be at gambling. Of course, no-one likes to lose but you have to learn to walk away at the point you set yourself, whether you are losing or winning. Not every session will be a winning one and it is important to have the ability to deal with this before you gamble.

 Principle 5: Specializing and specializing

All successful businesses specialize and gambling should be no exception. By specializing, you will be able to better understand and research your particular chosen field.

Principle 6: Please keep a Record Keeping

It is absolutely vital if you wish to take your gambling onto the next level that you keep accurate records of all your activity. The main use for record keeping is to keep track of winning and losing periods in order to make adjustments to your betting strategy and specialize even more to keep losses to a minimum.

Principle 7: Avoid Multiple or Accumulator Bets

Whichever market you wish to specialize in avoid multiples, accumulators or ‘parlays’ as they are known in the US. Combining the odds of multiple events looks attractive on paper but by increasing your possible win, you are at the same time lowering your statistical chance of ever seeing that win. Bookmakers absolutely love gamblers who are blinded by the big numbers who surrender their statistical chance of winning from the start. If you have to be tempted by placing a multiple and the whole thing is relying on the last event to fall in your favor then lay it off to guarantee a win. Don’t sweat it out hoping to be lucky. True gambling is about cutting down the chances of losing, not increasing them.

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Read Bernoulli’s Law before start betting

In the 17th century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli created the Law of Large Numbers, and asserted that even the stupidest man understands that the larger the sample, the more likely it is to represent the true probability of the observed event. For betting, this is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy, and can be a very costly misconception.

The Law of Large Numbers

Using a fair coin toss as an example (where the chance of hitting heads and tails has an equal 50% chance), Bernoulli calculated that as the number of coin tosses gets larger, the percentage of heads or tails results gets closer to 50%, while the difference between the actual number of heads or tails thrown also gets larger.

It’s the second part of Bernoulli’s theorem that people have a problem understanding – which has led to it being coined the “Gambler’s Fallacy”. If you tell someone that a coin has been flipped nine times, landing on heads each time, their prediction for the next flip tends to be tails.

This is incorrect, however, as a coin has no memory, so each time it is tossed the probability of heads or tails is the same: 0.5 (a 50% chance).

Bernoulli’s discovery showed that as a sample of fair coin-tosses gets really big – e.g. a million – the distribution of heads or tails would even out to around 50%. Because the sample is so large, however, the expected deviation from an equal 50/50 split can be as large as 500.

This equation for calculating the statistical standard deviation gives us an idea what we should expect:

0.5 × √ (1,000,000) = 500

While the expected deviation is observable for this many tosses, the nine-toss example mentioned earlier isn’t a large enough sample for this to apply.

Therefore the nine tosses are like an extract from the million-toss sequence – the sample is too small to even-out like Bernoulli suggests will happen over a sample of a million tosses, and instead can form a sequence by pure chance.

Applying Distribution

There are some clear applications for expected deviation in relation to betting. The most obvious application is for casino games like Roulette, where a misplaced belief that sequences of red or black or odds or even will even out during a single session of play can leave you out of pocket. That’s why the Gambler’s Fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy.

In 1913, a roulette table in a Monte Carlo casino saw black come up 26 times in a row. After the fifteenth black, bettors were piling onto red, assuming the chances of yet another black number were becoming astronomical, thereby illustrating an irrational belief that one spin somehow influences the next.

Another example could be a slot machine, which is in effect a random number generator with a set RTP (Return to Player). You can often witness players who have pumped considerable sums into a machine without success embargoing other players from their machine, convinced that a big win must logically follow their losing run.

Of course, for this tactic to be viable, the bettor would have to have played an impractically large number of times to reach the RTP.

With an understanding of the Law of Large Numbers, and the law (or flaw) of averages consigned to the rubbish bin, you won’t be one of Bernouilli’s ‘stupid men’.

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The Top 3 Mistakes to avoid

1. Failure to Use Betting Banks

Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses.

Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a “Betting Bank” that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters.

The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.

The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels.

A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital.

With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.

2.Failure to Stake Correctly

It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use.

You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank.

Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results.

Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row!

Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run.

in essence key to winning money is to manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you. With a long term profitable approach at level stakes you need to plan for and anticipate lean or losing periods.

3.Chasing Losses

Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit.

Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don’t have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in, and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win.

Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to ”chase” losses or “play up” winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day.

There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as “The Last Race”.

If you’re a newbie punter and haven’t placed a bet as a serious punter before then go through them again and MAKE SURE you don’t repeat any of them in your betting ventures.

Casino-6

4 serious mistakes in betting exchange trading

Mistake 1: Not getting out instantly

Short term traders on the betting exchanges don’t realize just how short term you have to be to avoid the losses.

To trade without knowing anything about what is going on, you have to assume that any movement against you is going to carry on going against you in the most painful way it can. And this isn’t to drastic of an assumption, as anyone that’s held onto a losing trade only to see it get worse and worse will agree.

Without any knowledge to the contrary you have to assume the worst, and the only protection against this is not to be in harm’s way: The less time you’re in a position, the less can go wrong.

Take your profits quickly and your scratch trades and losses even quicker.

By quickly I mean instantly, profit scratch or loss you should be out, or at least have your counter trade in, within 10 or 20 seconds at the most.

Mistake 2: Letting losing trades ride as bets

To be a successful trader you must be taking profits and losses of roughly the same size, but having more profits than losses, with the scratch trade taking the place of the losses.

As soon as you start to let your losses get bigger than your profits you’re creating an uphill battle for yourself because then you have to have lots more profits than losses just to break even.

The absolute worst thing you can do is hold on to a bet because you were losing on it and let it ride as the race runs. Doing this is total insanity from a risk reward ratio and is gambling at it’s worst.

If you want to gamble then gamble but at least do it properly. Don’t do a hybrid mix of trading and gambling where you’re doing each one badly.

To make small one and two tick profits and then risk your whole bank on the outcome of a horserace because you couldn’t take a small one or two tick loss is stupid. You know that in the long run it’s going to end in tears so why do it?

There’s no point in winning 9 times and losing once if your loss is 50 times the size of your profit. Anyone with such a complete lack of discipline not only will lose but deserves to lose.

Mistake 3: Over thinking the trades

Most traders over think which way the market is going to go which has 2 drawbacks: firstly, they don’t do enough trades which cuts down their potential to make money and secondly when they do eventually pull the trigger they have put so much thought and effort into their trade that they fall in love with it.

They are unwilling to get out of such a trade with an almost instant scratch trade or an almost instant small loss.

It’s as if doing that would be to embarrassing after waiting so long and putting so much time into it.

This is why people ride their losses due to their inability to accept so quickly that they were wrong.

Instead of entering into a trade with the confidence that you are right, each trade should instead be entered with the assumption that you are wrong with a willingness to react correctly if indeed you are wrong.

As much as you may have built up your reasoning for the trade you just did, you must remember that you don’t actually know anything about what is going on and it’s ok to be wrong.
Mistake 4: Wanting a profit of a predetermined size

Many people decide how much they want to make out of a trade before they enter it and then set their exit price according to that rather than what it looks like they can reasonably get now.

Wanting to make 2 ticks is great but putting your counter trade in 2 ticks higher than you just layed at and then sitting back waiting is gambling, not trading.

It might go up, but it might go down, if you can’t get out straight away with a profit you should ask for a smaller profit. If you can’t get the smaller profit straight away you should scratch, and if you miss the scratch trade you should take a loss.

If instead of all that you remain motionless with your counter trade still in at the same price waiting for your 2 tick profit then you are gambling and will have your share of profits but also your share of big losses.