casino

Which casino game is more profitable?

his is one of the most often asked questions when it comes to online casinos. What game should I play to make the most money? Where am I likely to loose less.

The problem is that it is an almost impossible question to answer because casinos make it difficult to decide by changing the rules of the game while marketing them as the same.

Blackjack for example, has so many variants that it is hard to call blackjack the most profitable game of them all.

There is, Pontoon, Spanish 21, doubling down any number of cards, rescue, (or surrender), payout bonuses for five or more card 21’s, 6-7-8 21’s, 7-7-7 21’s, late surrender, and player blackjacks always winning and player 21. In Asia, the so called, Chinese Blackjack is very popular, (splitting is different).

Another popular game amongst online gamblers are slot machines, they can offer payouts ranging from 70% to 99%. Granted most well known online casinos would never offer a slot game that paid less than 95%. So that would make slots the most profitable game… if you knew in advance what the percentage payout was, many forums/websites claim to know the percentage, but one wonders how they arrived at that number in the first place, (the casinos will either lie or not give the actual payouts).

Because the payouts are not advertised it is very difficult for a user to reliably choose a slot.

Progressive slots also don’t pay as much because the casino has to build funds for the end bonus, (ranging from $10.000 to $1.000.000 and more).

Craps is also a mis-leading game, the “pass line” bet, which wins for a new shooter who rolls a 7 or 11, loses on a 2, 3, or 12, and on any other number requires him to roll that number (his point) again before rolling a 7, has an even money payoff that delivers a 1.41% edge to the house. The single-roll bets are just ridiculous: an ‘any 7’ bet pays 4:1 and gives the house a whopping 16% edge.

Roulette has two popular versions, the European version has 37 slots with a single 0; the American version has an extra slot, a 00 to make 38.

The house advantage is 2.7% For European and 5.26% for the American table.

So the choice is simple if you must play roulette, play European!

But as a whole roulette is not such a safe bet, (and some ‘sure way’ techniques like Martingale method make is downright dangerous to play).

They change the rules all the time.

Remember also that certain rules changes are employed to create new variant games.

These changes actually increase the house edge in these games. But they are cleverly worded to give the opposite impression to the unsuspecting players.

Double Exposure Blackjack is a variant in which the dealer’s cards are both face-up.

This game increases house edge by paying even money on blackjacks and players losing ties.

Double Attack Blackjack has very liberal blackjack rules and the option of increasing one’s wager after seeing the dealer’s up card.

And the winner is?

Classic blackjack in most its forms is usually the game that offers the best returns.

With correct basic strategy, a Spanish 21 almost always has a higher house edge than any comparable Blackjack game.

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The secrets of the roulette

One or double zero

There are two types of roulette: With one zero and with double zero. The edge of the Casino is greater with double zero. The intensity of the casino’s edge varies, but single zero is the cheapest in which case you only loose half your betting on the chances red/black, odd/even and high/low when zero is the one. Sometimes you loose your entire betting – this is important to remember before starting.

Payouts on the different chances are:

1 nummer (plein) 35:1
2 numbers (cheval) 17:1
Transversal plein 3 numbers 11:1
Carre 4 numbers 8:1
Transversale simple 6 numbers 5:1
Dozen/columns 2:1
Single chances 1:1

 

1 number has a probability of 1:37 and since the pay out is 1:35, the casino has secured itself a nice, easy profit. As a point of departure, you cannot chance these playing normally – not even when you use progressions or gamble on extreme probabilities. For example to await that a red has come six times in a row and then betting on black. Should it not come the first time you double from 1 to 2 units. And you continue this way from 2 to 4 etc. This is known as a Martingale. It is a safe route to ruin, even though you only need one win to be back to +1 unit.

Chart of series

There are several arguments against this method. Why sacrifice 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 or maybe 512 units to win one unit? If you want to play with varying stake money, then why choose a technique where the stake money is more moderate, but requires several hits. Due to the 50/50 chance of red/black the serie spread looks as follows:

2 series on 10 or more than 10
2 series on 9
4 series on 8
8 series on 7
16 series on 6
32 series on 5
64 series on 4
128 series on 3
256 series on 2
512 series on 1

You can start anywhere in the chart and see that there are just as many series on e.g. 6 than there are series longer than 6. You might as well bet on a series continuing rather than ending. The probability is the same. Many choose to continue with a series, flat bet, as long as it lasts arguing that you cannot know who long it is, but that it would be frustrating to get off early in a long series.

Others choose a different more intuitive strategy. You select a player, who is in a stream of bad luck (perhaps after having won for a while) and bet the exact opposite. There are people, who just aren’t very lucky. If you can find one of those and play the opposite…well…sometimes it works.

Some tips

A couple of advice: never bet too much in one spin so that it matters whether you win or loose.

Never bring your credit card. Decide on a fixed limit and bring it in cash – leave, if you have lost it all.

Should you win – it is a possibility – a good rule is only to give back part of your winnings to the casino so to speak. Let’s say you won 300…then stash away 100 or 200 or cash it and play with the remainder. Are you in a winning stream then cash it as soon as you can and continue with the remaining 1/3. This leaves you a little “buffer” should your winning stream stagnate.

Therefore:

  • Set a fixed limit that you can afford. Do not change, bend or alter this rule!
  • Never bet so much in one spin that it matters if you win or loose.
  • Continue to stash or cash parts of the winnings and use the remainder to pursue your winning stream.

You basically cannot beat the casino by numbers alone. Casinos always pay back less than they get in. It’s what they live of.

Deterministic vs. chaotic

The only element likely to change the probabilities is observation of physical events of a Newtonian nature with side effects of deterministic and chaotic nature. In this case, the effect of chaotic nature is less than the effect of the deterministic. That means if you transform the powers in the ballistic process of the ball and the speed of the rotor, you can predict the point, where gravity defeats the centrifugal power, and the ball begins to fall. In this case the deterministic part of the spin defeats the chaotic, where the ball hits one or more diamonds and begins to jump until stopping. After a long period of practicing, you can visualize the deterministic part and with statistics you can overcome the chaotic part, which often is purely chaotic. This is called Visual Tracking. Measured in one spin: the chaotic part is chaotic and all 37 numbers have a chance, but the chaotic part can be analyzed and the physics behind is far from as chaotic as it appears, and the jump length of the ball is not random. If it is (and there are wheels where that is the case) it is a wheel that is completely random.

Bias

Another option is a wheel with a defect – or bias – making numbers or sectors of the wheel more probable. Casinos keep a close watch for this scenario and the chance of you finding it by yourself before they do is unlikely today. Some years back teams went from casino to casino noting down all the number on all wheels. For example Dr. Richard Jarecki who on a regular basis robbed San Remo casino leading to their temporary closure. An old story unlikely to repeat itself today due to tight surveillance. Another famous one is Benno Winkel who with a team of paid writers went around and played wheels with provable biases. That’s biases that had more than 3 standard deviations. He lost everything later on what has lead to many believing that his game was not based on true bias, but rather betting favorites, which later caught up with him due to elementary probability theory.

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The pros of Forex trading

There are several advantages of the Forex market over some other types of financial trading.

When talking about various investments that are accessible to almost everyone, there is one type that springs to mind. The Forex or foreign exchange market has many advantages over other types of trading. Since it is an OTC (over-the-counter) market, the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, unlike the regular stock or commodity markets. Most investments require a significant amount of money before you can take advantage of that investment opportunity. You only need a small amount of capital to trade Forex. Everyone can enter the market with as little as $1 to trade a “micro account”, which allows you to open positions of 1,000 units. One lot of 1,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract in micro account. Each “pip” or “tick” (smallest currency rate movement up or down) is worth $0.10 profit or loss, depending on whether you are going with the market or against it. A Forex mini account gives you control over 10,000 units of currency, where one pip is worth $1.00. While a standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency, and a pip here is usually worth $10.00.

 

Forex is also one of the most liquid markets. When trading currencies on the spot Forex market you have full control of your capital, meaning that you can buy and sell your positions anytime during market open period. This is a definite advantage because, if you need to use your account money, it can be accessed immediately without additional commission or waiting periods. Many other types of investments require holding your money up for rather long periods of time.

 

Also, in Forex, with a small amount of money, you can control bigger market positions using the leverage or margin trading. Leverage of 1:100 is common in the Fore market. It allows you to control amounts 100 times bigger than your capital, while leverage of 1:500 and 1:1000 can be found with some offshore companies.

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit, since short-selling is a subject to strict limits in stock exchanges. Forex traders can make a profit during both uptrends and downtrends. Forex trading is rightfully considered risky but with a good trading system to follow, good money management skills, and some level of self-discipline, the risks of Forex trading can be minimized considerably.

 

The Forex market can be traded anytime and anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer and internet, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember before jumping into trading currencies is that it is worth practicing with “paper money”, or “fake money”, on the demo account. Most foreign exchange brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading platform and practice in real-time with real market data but with “virtual money”. While profitable demo trading cannot guarantee your success with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you start trading with your real, hard-earned money.

PokerNight8

Basic Poker Hands

Poker Hands

(from Best to Worst)

Be sure to pay close attention and memorize the poker hand rankings. Let’s start with the best possible hand in poker….

1.Royal Flush

Royal Flush

A Royal flush consists of five cards of the same suit, in sequence from 10 through to Ace. Remember that all suits are equal in poker. If two or more players hold a royal flush (highly unlikely) then the pot is split, i.e. the players share the winnings.

2.Straight Flush

Straight Flush

Five cards of the same suit, in sequence. This example shows a Jack high straight flush. If two or more players hold a straight flush then it is the highest that wins. For example, a Queen high straight flush beats a Jack high straight flush. You will notice that this is very similar to a Royal flush, and that’s because a Royal flush is in fact an ace high straight flush – but it’s given its very own ranking.

3.Four of a Kind

Four of a Kind

This hand contains four cards of the same rank/value. This example shows four 8’s, plus a 5 (remember that all poker hands must have five cards). If two or more players have four of a kind, then the highest value wins (e.g. four 9’s beats four 8’s). If two or more players share the same four of a kind, which can happen when using community cards (more on that later) then the winner is decided by the fifth card. So a player with four 8’s and a 6 would beat a player with four 8’s and a 5.

4.Full House

Full House

A full house contains three cards of the same rank, plus a pair. In our example you can see three 10’s and a pair of 7’s. The value of the three matching cards determines the strength of a full house. So three Jack’s with a pair of 7’s would beat our example hand. If players share the same three cards, which is possible when using community cards, the strength of the pair is then taken into account. So, three 10’s and a pair of 8’s would beat our example hand.

5.Flush

Flush

Five cards of the same suit in any order. Our example shows a Queen high flush. If two or more players have a flush then the player with the highest ranked card wins. If the players share the same high card then it’s determined by the value of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th card respectively.

6.Straight

Straight

This hand contains five unsuited cards in sequence. Our example shows a King high straight. In the event of a tie, the best straight is determined by the highest ranked card. A straight consisting of 8, 9, 10, J, Q, would lose to our example hand. But a straight consisting of 10, J, Q, K, A, would win. Also note that an Ace can be used as the low card for a straight of A, 2, 3, 4, 5. This would lose to a straight of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

7.Three of a Kind

Three of a Kind

Three cards of the same rank, and two unrelated cards. Our example shows three 4’s. Three 5’s would beat our example hand, three 6’s would beat three 5’s, and so on. If players share the same three cards, then the value of the highest unrelated card would count and if necessary, the value of the second unrelated card. So, three 4’s with Jack, 8, would beat our example hand. As would three 4’s and 10, 9 (because 9 is higher than 8).

8.Two Pair

Two Pairs

Two cards of matching rank, with another two cards of another rank, plus an additional card. In the event of a tie, the highest pair wins. If players share the same highest pair, then the value of the next pair wins. For example, a pair of Aces, and a pair of 6’s would beat our example hand, as would a pair of Kings and a pair of 7’s. If two or more players share the same two pair, then the value of the fifth card counts. So, a pair of Kings, a pair of 6’s, with a 4, would beat our example hand.

9.One Pair

One Pair

A paired hand contains two cards of matching rank, plus three additional cards. The value of the pair determines who wins in the event of a tie. For example a pair of 10’s beats our example hand. If players share the same pair then the best hand is determined by the value of the highest additional card. If this is the same then it goes to the second card, and if necessary the third. So, a pair of 9’s with an Ace, 2, and 10, would beat our example hand. As would a pair of 9’s, King, 10, and a 3.

10.High Card

High Card

If a hand doesn’t fall into any of the above categories, then it is judged on the value of the highest ranked card among the five. In this example we have a hand which is Queen high. If players share the same highest card, then it goes to the value of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and even 5th card if necessary. A hand of Queen, 10, 9, 5, 4, would beat our example hand.

and… Community Cards

As you already know, a poker hand consists of five cards. In many variations of poker, players receive or can choose from more than five cards. For example, in Texas Hold’em each player is dealt two private cards, but can also use the five community cards that are available for all the players to use. This makes a total of seven cards, but each player must choose their best five cards to make their best possible hand. Here’s an example:

Community Cards in Texas Hold'em

In the above example, the best five cards among total of seven (two private cards and five community cards) would be combined to make a flush.

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Betting Odds Explained

To wager and win at casinos or bookmakers, it is not necessary to be a genius or mathematical whiz. Many who wager simply bet on hunches and trust their luck, often with excellent results. However, for anyone who wants to be successful at gambling by consistently winning, online or off, having a clear understanding of betting odds is of critical importance.

Odds are nothing more than numbers used to indicate the likelihood that an event will happen or not. For example, when a coin is flipped, it might come up either heads or tails. For someone who believes the result of the next toss will be tails, there is just one way to succeed (win) and one way to fail (lose). Winning or losing is equally likely so the odds are said to be 1-to-1. Other ways of saying this are “the odds are even,” “even odds” or simply “evens.”

There are many ways of expressing odds in writing. They can take the form of a fraction, a ratio, a percentage or a decimal. For the coin flip, there are two possible outcomes, tails being one of them. Tails should come up one out of every two tosses, or ½, or 1:2, or 50% or 0.5. All of these different modes of expression mean the same thing.

In much the same way, when a six-side die is thrown, it might land with any of its six sides appearing face up. For someone who believes the result of the next toss will be a six, for example, there is only one way to succeed (win), while there are five ways to fail (lose). This situation can be expressed as a probability of one out of six, or 1/6, or 1:6, or 16.7% or 0.167.

Whether the event is a coin flip or the roll of a die, the numbers will indicate exactly how likely it is that a given outcome will occur. These are often referred to as “true odds.” When betting, however, the odds that are offered are rarely true odds. That’s because the casino or bookmaker takes a small percentage of every winning wager as a commission or profit. This is known by many names, such as “house edge,” “vigorish” or “juice.”

In the game of European Roulette, the wheel contains 37 numbered slots: 18 coloured black, 18 coloured red and one coloured green—the zero. For someone who believes the result of the next spin will be Black, the casino will pay even money (1-to-1) every time a Black number comes up. However, the true odds are not really 1-to-1. Only 18 of the 37 numbers on the European Roulette wheel are Black. That means there are 18 ways to succeed (win) and 19 ways to fail (lose). The true odds are therefore 19-to-18 against Black—slightly worse than 1-to-1.

This difference between true odds and odds is the house edge. The player is always put at a slight disadvantage that ensures that the casino or bookmaker will earn a profit. In European Roulette, this edge is the result of having the green zero, which is one out of the 37 numbers, or 1/37 or 2.70%. In American Roulette, it is 1/38 or 5.26%.

Other games, such as Blackjack, also have a house edge built in. Depending on the specific house rules, the casino’s advantage at the Blackjack table will vary from 0.15% to 5.48%. By way of comparison, slot machines margins tend to range from 3% to 8%.

For horse races and sports betting, reading the odds can be a little more complicated. Nevertheless, the same principles are used. Bookmakers work with specialists known as “oddsmakers,” who calculate the probability of a runner or team succeeding. The odds that are offered to the public represent their calculations of what the outcome will be, based on true odds by adjusted slightly to include their vigorish.

Perhaps the most common types of odds seen in sports betting are called “fixed odds.” The prices are set before the event begins. They become final as soon as a wager is made, rather like a contract at an agreed amount. Fixed odds are usually expressed as fractions in the U.K., as decimals in continental Europe and as “money lines” in North America.

Fractional odds are the easiest to understand. U.K. bookmakers use them to show how much profit will be earned on a bet. For instance, odds of 3/5 on Arsenal mean the bettor will earn three units on every five units bet if the wager succeeds. A bet of £100 is the same as five units of £20. If the Gunners win, the payout would be three units of £20 or £60 in profit. That the same as receiving £160 in total, including the original stake.

Decimal odds used throughout Europe indicate how much a win will pay in total for each unit wagered. It doesn’t matter whether the unit is £1, £20, £100 or whatever. For example, if Arsenal are favoured to win at 1.60, then a £100 bet will return £160 in total. To calculate the potential of a £15 wager, multiply the bet by 1.60. The expected return is £24 in total.

U.S. money line odds are stated as either positive or negative numbers. Positive money lines refer to underdogs. They indicate how much profit can be won on a stake of 100 units. Negative money lines refer to favourites and show how much has to be wagered in order to win 100 units. In the Arsenal example, a negative money line of -167 would be offered, so a wager of £100, which is roughly equal to 167 units of 60p, would win 100 x 60p = £60.

Thinking back to the initial example of a coin flip, even money bets at true odds would be expressed in the three different systems as follows: fraction = 1/1 (“evens”); decimal = 2.00; and money line = +100. After the bookmaker figures in a commission, the actual odds offered might look like this: fraction = 9/10; decimal = 1.90; and money line = -110.

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UK Gambling facts and figures

Regulation

  • All gambling operators (except currently the National Lottery, which has its own regulator, and spread betting) based in Britain must hold a licence from the Gambling Commission, which is a statutory regulator responsible to Parliament.
  • As at 31 March 2010, the Gambling Commission was licensing 3,275 operators and around 12,900 personal licensees.  The Commission is funded by licence fees from these groups and in 2009/10 it raised over £12 million from these sources.

Size of the industry

  • The Commission estimates that operators it regulates generated around £6 billion in gross gambling yield (stakes less winnings paid out) in 2009/10.
  • Around £1.5 billion is paid in gambling taxes to the Government each year.

Gambling in the UK

  • There are currently only 148 casinos operating in the UK in 53 ‘Permitted Areas’.  There are some undeveloped (1968 Act) licences but the total number is finite and cannot exceed 187.
  • Casino gambling provides direct employment to circa than 14,000 people and as many as 30,000 people in other industries provide services to our operations.
  • The government controls precisely where and how UK casinos operate; it determines the products, the pricing structures, it controls the marketing and licensing of staff and with its control of taxation it determines profitability.

Gambling participation

  • Over 50% of adults in Britain gamble at least once a month.  73% have gambled in the previous 12 months.  This figure goes down to 48% if the National lottery is excluded.

Gaming

  • European roulette has a far lower house edge than American roulette. The European version gives the house a 2.7% advantage whilst American roulette gives the house a 5.26% edge.
  • The famous Martingale strategy, which requires the gambler to double their stake every time they lose and to continue betting on a 50/50 outcome such as ‘black’ or ‘even’, is mathematically proven to lose immense sums of money when playing roulette.
  • In 2004 a London man successfully doubled his fortune by selling everything he owned and placing the money he made on red at a Las Vegas roulette table.

Cards

  • The first set of cards was created in Gaul during the 15th century and the person who designed the original deck modeled his new design on historical figures throughout the ages. For example, did you realise that Charlemagne is actually synonymous with the King of Hearts? Or that Julius Caesar is depicted by the King of Diamonds? Similarly, Alexander the Great is actually the King of Clubs. And finally, King David, of biblical fame, was originally the man behind the King of Spades.

Betting

  • By far the most populous form of licensed gambling premises in the UK are betting offices of which there are around 8,500.
  • Bookmakers directly support about 40,700 full-time jobs and indirectly support a further 62,300 making a total of well over 100,000 employees. The industry offers a high number of jobs to those with few formal qualifications, boosting employment opportunities and skills development.
  • The Horserace Betting Levy (known in the industry simply as “the Levy”) was introduced in 1961 when high street betting shops were legalised. It is a statutory financial contribution in the form of a hypothecated tax that bookmakers must pay to the Horserace Betting Levy Board, which then disburses such funds to the horseracing industry for purposes set out in the Betting, Gaming & Lotteries Act 1963. These include veterinary research, the preservation of rare breeds of horses and the general improvement of horseracing. The Board is a non-departmental public body sponsored by DCMS and funded out of the Levy it collects from bookmakers.
  • The largest known bet placed on the Super Bowl was made by an unknown gambler at the Mirage Casino in Las Vegas. The gambler put $2.4 million on San Francisco beating San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX. The 49ers won the gambler $300,000.
  • According to Guinness World Records, the highest odds for an accumulator bet were 3,072,887 to 1 by an unnamed woman from Nottingham on 2 May 1995.

Online gambling

  • Over 2,500 online gambling websites can be accessed from the UK, but the market is completely dominated by a much smaller group of companies who are primarily licensed in Britain, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, Malta and Gibraltar.  Many of these such as Ladbrokes, William Hill, Gala Coral and Rank are also known for having land-based operations in the UK as well.
  • If those only playing National Lottery games remotely are excluded, 5.6% of the adult population had participated in remote gambling in the year to March 2009.

Bingo

  • There were 216 bingo operators licensed by the Commission at 31 March 2009, operating 641 clubs.
  • In 2008 Soraya Lowell, 38, from Hamilton in Lanarkshire won the National Bingo Game and its Platinum Jackpot on Sunday night, netting £1,167,795. The mother-of-four decided to give half of her winnings to Agnes O’Neill, 68, her neighbour and bingo companion who was with her when she hit the jackpot.

Slot machines

  • It is estimated by the British Amusement Catering Trade Association (BACTA) that there were over 248,000 gaming machines available to the public at 31 March 2009.
  • The largest jackpot ever won in Las Vegas was $39.7 million and was won in March of 2003 at the Excalibur casino. The lucky winner was a 25-year-old man from Los Angeles that turned a $100 stint at the slots into the biggest win ever recorded. The instantly wealthy man was visiting Vegas for the NCAA basketball tournaments and just sat down at the slot machine to play for a while. He walked away with a whopping $1.5 million payout for the next 25 years.

National lottery

  • Since its launch in 1994, the National Lottery has given over £34 billion in prizes and created over 2,000 millionaires.
  • Total National Lottery ticket sales for the year to 31 March 2009 were £5,149.1 million, an increase of £182.8 million on the previous year.
  • 96% of the UK population either live or work within two miles of a Lottery terminal.

Lotteries

  • It is generally believed that Spanish Sorteo Extraordinario de Navidad is the world’s largest lottery. However, as every number entered is printed on 170 tickets which are usually sold in fractions (usually tenths), the El Gordo prizes are usually split between multiple winners.
  • Mega Millions is a lottery played in 42 US jurisdictions. Since it began as The Big Game in 1996 (it adopted its current name in 2002), it is known for its large jackpot prizes and long odds. On 6 March 2007, a Mega Millions jackpot worth $390 million was split by two tickets, one each from Georgia and New Jersey. To date, this is the largest recorded payout (of an annuity-based prize) in the world. Both winners chose a lump sum payout which was $116,957,083.

Problem gambling

  • The gambling industry has committed to donate a minimum of £5 million per year between 2009 and 2012 to help fund problem gambling related research, education and treatment.
  • Depending on the screen used, the rate for problem gambling in the UK is either 0.7% or 0.9%. These rates are similar to those in other European countries (such as Germany and Norway) and are lower than countries such as the USA and Australia.
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The Top 3 Mistakes to avoid

1. Failure to Use Betting Banks

Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses.

Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a “Betting Bank” that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters.

The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.

The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels.

A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital.

With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.

2.Failure to Stake Correctly

It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use.

You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank.

Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results.

Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row!

Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run.

in essence key to winning money is to manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you. With a long term profitable approach at level stakes you need to plan for and anticipate lean or losing periods.

3.Chasing Losses

Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit.

Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don’t have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in, and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win.

Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to ”chase” losses or “play up” winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day.

There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as “The Last Race”.

If you’re a newbie punter and haven’t placed a bet as a serious punter before then go through them again and MAKE SURE you don’t repeat any of them in your betting ventures.

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Spread Betting 101

Spread betting simply allows you to speculate on whether the price of an asset will rise or fall. You can gamble on everything from shares and commodities to stock market indices and football matches.

The beauty is that you don’t actually have to buy the underlying asset you want to trade. You just take a view on the prices offered by the spread betting provider as to whether the price will rise or fall.

How spread betting works

Spread betting firms offer you a quote, which consists of a bid (selling) price and – slightly higher – offer (buying) price. Take the following example. If the FTSE 100 stands at 4700, the spread betting provider will likely offer you a bid price of 4698 and an offer price of 4702.

If you think that the index will rise, you might “buy” for £10/point at 4702. For each point the FTSE 100 rises, you will earn £10. Say the FTSE rises to 4722 by the day’s close, and you decide to close out your bet. Your profit will be £200 (4722-4702 = 20 x £10). In contrast, if you think the market will fall, you “sell” at 4698.

 

But there are risks as well as rewards in spread betting. Although you can make a lot of money from wagering a small stake, you can lose money fast, too. So if you sell the FTSE100 for £10/point at 4698, and it actually rises to a spread of 4720/4724, you lose £260 (4698-4724 = -26 x £10).

Because you can quickly lose lots if your trade goes wrong, spread betting firms demand some protection that you’ll eventually be able to settle up. This is a deposit called ‘margin’. It varies in size, but is usually around 10% of the value of your bet. If your losses on the trade threaten to exceed that margin, your provider will demand more money, known as a margin call. If you can’t come up with this, the provider will close out your position at the current price.

You’ll go broke quite fast if you depend on margin calls to control your losses. So a much better way is to use stop losses. These are orders to close out a trade at your specified level. In the above example, if you sold at 4698 but set a stop loss at an offer price of 4710, your loss would be just £120 (4698-4710 = -12 x £10).

There is a potential problem with ordinary stop losses however – “gapping”. That’s where the market is moving fast and lots of stop-loss orders are triggered together. Since they close at the market price closest to the specified price on a first-come, first-served basis, you may not get out at the level you expected.

 

The solution to this problem is slightly more expensive but well worth considering – the guaranteed stop. Here you pay your broker a slightly wider spread to get you out at a preset price regardless of how many other stop orders are triggered alongside yours. In effect your broker is buying you out of the trade. At times of high volatility in particular, that’s insurance that’s well worth paying for.

 

What are the advantages of spread betting?

One reason is the tax break. Under UK law, there are no taxes on your betting profits, either stamp duty or on capital gains. Another is that it can be an easy and cost effective way to trade. When you buy shares through a broker, you have to pay a fee. With spread betting you don’t. This is because the spread betting provider makes his money from the difference between the bid and offer prices.

But it’s not just about cost. Spread betting lets you speculate on a whole range of markets that would otherwise be difficult to access. For example, as well as betting on currencies, you can bet on how many seats a political party will win in a general election, or how many runs a cricket team will score in its innings.

 

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4 serious mistakes in betting exchange trading

Mistake 1: Not getting out instantly

Short term traders on the betting exchanges don’t realize just how short term you have to be to avoid the losses.

To trade without knowing anything about what is going on, you have to assume that any movement against you is going to carry on going against you in the most painful way it can. And this isn’t to drastic of an assumption, as anyone that’s held onto a losing trade only to see it get worse and worse will agree.

Without any knowledge to the contrary you have to assume the worst, and the only protection against this is not to be in harm’s way: The less time you’re in a position, the less can go wrong.

Take your profits quickly and your scratch trades and losses even quicker.

By quickly I mean instantly, profit scratch or loss you should be out, or at least have your counter trade in, within 10 or 20 seconds at the most.

Mistake 2: Letting losing trades ride as bets

To be a successful trader you must be taking profits and losses of roughly the same size, but having more profits than losses, with the scratch trade taking the place of the losses.

As soon as you start to let your losses get bigger than your profits you’re creating an uphill battle for yourself because then you have to have lots more profits than losses just to break even.

The absolute worst thing you can do is hold on to a bet because you were losing on it and let it ride as the race runs. Doing this is total insanity from a risk reward ratio and is gambling at it’s worst.

If you want to gamble then gamble but at least do it properly. Don’t do a hybrid mix of trading and gambling where you’re doing each one badly.

To make small one and two tick profits and then risk your whole bank on the outcome of a horserace because you couldn’t take a small one or two tick loss is stupid. You know that in the long run it’s going to end in tears so why do it?

There’s no point in winning 9 times and losing once if your loss is 50 times the size of your profit. Anyone with such a complete lack of discipline not only will lose but deserves to lose.

Mistake 3: Over thinking the trades

Most traders over think which way the market is going to go which has 2 drawbacks: firstly, they don’t do enough trades which cuts down their potential to make money and secondly when they do eventually pull the trigger they have put so much thought and effort into their trade that they fall in love with it.

They are unwilling to get out of such a trade with an almost instant scratch trade or an almost instant small loss.

It’s as if doing that would be to embarrassing after waiting so long and putting so much time into it.

This is why people ride their losses due to their inability to accept so quickly that they were wrong.

Instead of entering into a trade with the confidence that you are right, each trade should instead be entered with the assumption that you are wrong with a willingness to react correctly if indeed you are wrong.

As much as you may have built up your reasoning for the trade you just did, you must remember that you don’t actually know anything about what is going on and it’s ok to be wrong.
Mistake 4: Wanting a profit of a predetermined size

Many people decide how much they want to make out of a trade before they enter it and then set their exit price according to that rather than what it looks like they can reasonably get now.

Wanting to make 2 ticks is great but putting your counter trade in 2 ticks higher than you just layed at and then sitting back waiting is gambling, not trading.

It might go up, but it might go down, if you can’t get out straight away with a profit you should ask for a smaller profit. If you can’t get the smaller profit straight away you should scratch, and if you miss the scratch trade you should take a loss.

If instead of all that you remain motionless with your counter trade still in at the same price waiting for your 2 tick profit then you are gambling and will have your share of profits but also your share of big losses.

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A Brief History of Betting Exchange

Peer-to-peer betting, the precursor to a betting exchange, was first released in the UK by Flutter.com in May 2000. Soon after, UK-based Betfair launched what it originally called “open-market betting”, in June 2000 – a name which was quickly changed, by the media and the associated industry, to “betting exchange”. Betfair embraced an exchange model, but it took a year before Flutter adopted a similar technology. Though Flutter managed to climb to a reported 30% market share, Flutter’s backers were content to broker a merger which left Betfair the dominant partner by a reported ratio of 84:16. Post merger, Flutter’s customers were transferred to Betfair’s system, which was later upgraded to embrace some of Flutter’s functionality. Betfair has maintained from that point a dominant marketshare and controls a reported 90% of global exchange activity today.

As with other types of exchanges, betting exchanges thrive on liquidity and customers tend to focus on the exchange where they are confident their bet can be paired up with a matching counterbet. Breaking with British tradition, Betfair uses decimal odds instead of fractional (traditional) odds because they are more popular globally.