All posts by Sebastian Contra

Born and raised in a Mediterranean port, , Sebastian Contra began using his brain skills to educate himself. Legend has it that in the mid 2000s Contra wrote its thesis “Implementing Chaos Theory in Business Strategy” left London and began his professional business,gambling and investment career.
Football Betting

The 7 principles of gambling

Principle 1: The Discipline of Discipline

It doesn’t matter what type of gambling activity you get involved in.If you enter into gambling transactions without discipline then you are sure to reduce your chances of winning consistently. Casinos I have visited in the UK offer free alcohol when you are gambling because they want you to lose your discipline, and they know that getting you drunk is the easiest way to do it.

Principle 2: Never Chase Losses, Never

If you are betting in-play and events are unfolding against you, there is a temptation to pour more money into the same event in order to get back what you are standing to lose. This tactic only increases the chances that you will lose more. Likewise, adopting the strategy after a loss that you must recoup your losses by betting more on the next event is also a recipe for disaster.

Principle 3: Staking Bank

The one certain thing is that you will never win all of your transactions and some losses are inevitable. Managing your bankroll correctly means that these losing transactions get swallowed up in the big picture but are not noticed in the long run. No single transaction should eat more than 10-15% of your starting bankroll, or the maximum below this that you set yourself. Failure to manage your bankroll correctly is symptomatic of greed. Most gamblers have no structure to their betting activity and place bets without thought to how much they may lose or how much they are trying to win.


Principle 4: Learn to walk away, winner or loser

How you cope with losses plays a huge part in how successful you will be at gambling. Of course, no-one likes to lose but you have to learn to walk away at the point you set yourself, whether you are losing or winning. Not every session will be a winning one and it is important to have the ability to deal with this before you gamble.

 Principle 5: Specializing and specializing

All successful businesses specialize and gambling should be no exception. By specializing, you will be able to better understand and research your particular chosen field.

Principle 6: Please keep a Record Keeping

It is absolutely vital if you wish to take your gambling onto the next level that you keep accurate records of all your activity. The main use for record keeping is to keep track of winning and losing periods in order to make adjustments to your betting strategy and specialize even more to keep losses to a minimum.

Principle 7: Avoid Multiple or Accumulator Bets

Whichever market you wish to specialize in avoid multiples, accumulators or ‘parlays’ as they are known in the US. Combining the odds of multiple events looks attractive on paper but by increasing your possible win, you are at the same time lowering your statistical chance of ever seeing that win. Bookmakers absolutely love gamblers who are blinded by the big numbers who surrender their statistical chance of winning from the start. If you have to be tempted by placing a multiple and the whole thing is relying on the last event to fall in your favor then lay it off to guarantee a win. Don’t sweat it out hoping to be lucky. True gambling is about cutting down the chances of losing, not increasing them.

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D’Alembert Law of Equilibruim Strategy

Among the various progressive betting systems used for casino table games today, more than a few were developed by some of the greatest scientific minds of the 18th century. Of special note, French mathematicians often took the lead in analyzing games of chance. They were fascinated with statistics and probability, particularly in connection with tossing coins and dice.

One of those fascinated French academics was Jean-Baptiste le Rond d’Alembert (1717~1783), whose credentials included honors in physics, philosophy and music theory as well as maths. One of his rather odd (an incorrect) theories was that the probability of a tossed coin landing “tails” would increase for every time that it came up “heads.” He referred to this as the “Law of Equilibrium.”

The mistake d’Alembert made was basing his theory solely upon observation rather than calculations. He had witnessed that whenever two events are equally likely, such as coin flips resulting in heads or tails, that they really do appear to occur in equal number over the long term. Streaks losses seem to be counterbalanced by streaks of wins.

In truth, of course, all coin flips are independent outcomes, unaffected by past results. Nevertheless, based upon his faulty logic, d’Alembert’s system of betting promoted a process of decreasing one’s bet when winning and increasing it when losing, confident that wins and losses would eventually become equal for wagers with odds of 1:1.

The d’Alembert Betting System is therefore most commonly used for “even money” bets, such as Red or Black wagers at the Roulette table, Pass or Don’t Pass wagers at the Craps table and Banker or Player wagers at the Baccarat table. With modification, the system can also be used for Blackjack as well as for sports betting where vigorous must be accounted for.

The objective of the d’Alembert Betting System is to win a single unit in profit, so the player begins by wagering one unit at Evens. Each time a bet succeeds, one unit will be subtracted from the total just wagered and the remainder will be the amount of the next bet. Whenever a bet loses, one unit is added to the total wagered for the next bet. The progression continues until the amount of the next wager becomes zero.

As an example, if £1 is the basic unit and the first bet succeeds, subtracting one unit results in a next wager of zero, so the progression ends with a profit of £1. On the other hand, if the bet loses, the wager is increased by one unit to £2. If it wins, reduce the wager by one unit back to £1. If it loses, increase it one unit to £3. Continue playing in this fashion until the required wager is zero, resulting in a single unit (£1) in profit. Then, the progression begins anew.

One aspect of the d’Alembert Betting System that sets it apart from Martingale is that it does not require risking huge amounts at unfavorable odds in an attempt to recover previously lost wagers. Also, it differs from Labouchere because strings of losses never increase the wager by more than a single unit for the next bet. The d’Alembert Betting System is thus a very slow and methodical approach to wagering, making it a less risky progression than its cousins.

Where the system fails, however, is in its basic premise of Equilibrium. An initial loss might easily be followed by series of wins and losses in equal number, never quite recovering the original wager. Indeed, the progression might never end at all.

betfairtrading

Trading Forex Basics

 

Forex trading works much like it does with stocks, you buy low and you sell high. The benefit of trading Forex is that you don’t have to choose from thousands of companies or sectors. Plus, you can make things even simpler than choosing which company to buy.

For example, most people, even those that are new to Forex, have an opinion on the US dollar and the US economy. They can easily take their opinions and translate them into a Forex trade. Buying or selling US Dollars as simple as they buying or selling a company’s stock.

Also, another advantage of the FX market is that it doesn’t begin at 9AM and end at 4PM. Trading takes place 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. For most people 24 hour trading means they can trade before or after work. Plus, you have the flexibility to make your trades online.

What_is_Forex_body_Picture_1.png, What is Forex?

Plus, you can buy and sell at any time, in up trends (also called bull markets) and in down trends (also called bear markets).

 

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The 8 rules of Forex Trading

Forex trading is a difficult sport. You have to be ready to follow rules and principles. So, before start trading, please, read the following basic rules.

 

1. Don’t trade when you are tired, sick, anxious or worried.
2. Make sure you paper-trade before you risk real money.
3. Don’t get greedy. As they say… “Hogs get fed, pigs get slaughtered.”
4. Always put a protective stop in place.
5. Losses are part of this game and you must be able to accept them. If you can’t stomach the idea of losing money, then don’t trade.
6. Decide on your exit strategy, before you enter the trade.

7. If the risk is too big on a trade then don’t take it.
8. The hardest time to take a trade is when you have just had a few losers in a row. This however is exactly the time you need to jump right back in there as odds are that the next one will be a winner

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The 8 most essential tips before visiting Las Vegas

 

  1. Visit mid-week. Hotel rooms often cost three to four times as much on the weekends as during the week!  Plus, with weekend crowds you’ll wait in line for everything.  Mid-week visitors save tons of money and have a much better time.
  2. Get a player’s card. Go to the Player’s Club desk at any casino you visit and sign up for a free player’s card, even if you don’t plan to gamble there.  Then the casino will mail you offers for discounted or even free rooms on your next visit.  You can also sign up for the MGM-Mirage card online, which will work at 10 Vegas Strip casinos.
  3. Set a strict bank limit and stick to it. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. Set a budget for each playing session and if you lose it, stop playing.
  4. Don’t play games you don’t understand.
  5. Tip the dealers $10/hr., and the cocktail waitresses $2 every drink or two.
  6. Use the buses. The Westcliff Express bus goes straight from the airport to the South Strip (MGM Grand, NY NY, Luxor, Tropicana) for $2.  The #108 goes from the airport to the Stratosphere and then to downtown, for $2.  Pay $7 for a 24-hour pass when you get on any bus, and then ride any bus in the city for free for the next 24 hours, including the Deuce and Strip/Downtown Express buses.
  7. Walk. The whole strip is four miles long and you could walk the whole thing in an hour and a half.  Plus, it helps work off the calories from the buffets.
  8. Bank your winnings. Set aside half your win when you win big, and never gamble it, so you have a guaranteed win.
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Casino Probabilities : A must read intro

 

 

The casino roulette outcome was red 8 times in a row! What next?

Is black more likely on the next spin? No, it is not. Both red and black are equally likely. If you thought otherwise then the casinos love you, and you need to read this article right now.

In this article we’ll show here is why past events have no influence over future events. To understand this you need to know just a teeny tiny bit of math, and just one term, probability. Probability describes how likely it is that something will happen. There are three ways to refer to it: by fraction, by decimal, or by percentage. For example, say there are four cards, face-down, and you get to pick one. Three of them are aces. What are your chances of picking an ace? You have three chances out of four to get an ace. We can express this in any of these ways:

  • 3/4    (fraction)
  • 0.75   (decimal)
  • 75%   (percentage)

Each of these is just a different way of talking about the same thing. Notice that they’re pretty easy to convert, too. If you punch 3 divided by 4 into a calculator you get 0.75. And to convert a decimal to a percentage all you have to do is move the decimal two spaces to the right and add the percent sign. 0.75 is the same as 75%. What could be easier?

Okay, so now that we know how to refer to probabilities, let’s look at what they mean. Something that definitely will happen has a probability of 1 (or 1/1, or 100%, if you prefer). There’s a 100% chance the sun will come up tomorrow. Well, it’s not really a “chance” since it definitely will happen, but you get the idea. In our example of four cards, if all four were aces then your chances of picking an ace would be 4/4 = 1, it would definitely happen.

Something that definitely will not happen has a probability of 0. And in between 0 and 1 (or 0% to 100%) are all the things that could happen.

Your chances of winning some bet or series of bets might be 22%, 39%, 57%, or 83%. The higher the number, the more likely it will happen. Events over 50% will probably happen, events under 50% will probably not happen.

So far so good. So now let’s look at probability when an event happens many times, like flipping a coin over and over. The probability of getting heads on one flip is 1 out of 2 — one way to win out of two possible outcomes. We can call that 1/2 or 0.50 or 50%. But what are the chances of flipping the coin twice and getting heads both times? To figure this we multiply by the probability of each event:

 

First Flip
Second Flip
Probability
x
=

Of course, another way to express this is 50% x 50% = 25%.

Okay, so what are the chances of getting ten heads in a row?

 

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
=

Not very likely, of course.

So here’s where the gambler’s fallacy comes in: Say you’ve tossed the coin nine times and amazingly, you got nine heads. You figure that the next toss will be tails, because the probability of getting ten heads in a row is one in 1024, which is unlikely to happen!

The problem with this reasoning is that you’re not looking at the chances of getting ten heads in a row, you’re looking at the chances of getting one heads in a row. The heads that already happened no longer have a 50% chance of happening, they already happened, so their probability is 1. When you flip again the odds for that flip will be 50-50, same as it ever was.

Let’s introduce our hero, Mr. P, who will always be looking to the future to see what’s going to happen. He’s about to make ten coin flips, hoping to get ten heads. Here’s his outlook:

 

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
=

And here’s Mr. P. after flipping nine heads in a row, getting ready to make his tenth flip:

 

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
=

Now you’re saying, Hey, wait! How come all the 1/2’s turned into 1’s? The answer is that they’re no longer unknowns. Before you flip a coin you don’t know what’s going to happen so you have 50-50 odds. But after you flip the coin you definitely know what happened! After you flip a coin, the probability that you got a result is 1. You definitely flipped the coin. Definitely, definitely. So after you’ve flipped nine heads, the probability of flipping a tenth head is 1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x 1/2 = 1/2.

Let’s have another look at Mr. P:

 

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
=

Notice that it doesn’t matter where on the table you stick him, the chances of his next flip being heads is always 1/2. Wherever he is, it doesn’t matter what happened before, his chances on his next toss are always 1 in 2.

How could it be otherwise? When you flip a coin you will get one result out of two possible outcomes. That’s 1 in 2, or 1/2. Why and how could those numbers change just because you got a bunch of heads or tails already? They couldn’t. The coin has no memory, it neither knows nor cares what was flipped before. If it’s a 1-out-of-2 coin, it will always be a 1-out-of-2 coin.

Still not convinced? Then here’s another way to think about it. Let’s say someone hands you a coin and asks, “What are the chances of flipping heads?” Without hesitation you’d probably say 1 out of 2? But wait a minute — if it were true that heads were more likely if tails has just come up a bunch of times, then why did you answer “1 in 2” right away when asked about the chances of getting heads? Why didn’t you say, “Well, you have to tell me whether tails has been coming up a lot before I can tell you whether heads has a fair shot or not.”? It’s simple: You didn’t ask about the previous flips because intuitively you know they’re unimportant. If someone hands you a coin, the chances of getting heads are 1 in 2, regardless of what happened before.

Would it really be the case that you answered “1 in 2,” and then your friend said, “Oh, I forgot to tell you, tails has just come up nine times in a row.” Would you now suddenly change your answer and say that heads is more likely? I hope not.

One last example: Let’s say your friend slides two quarters towards you across the table. He tells you that the first coin has been flipping normally, but the second quarter has just had nine tails in a row. Would you now believe that the chances of getting heads on the first coin are even but the chances of getting heads on the second coin are greater? Given two identical coins, could you really believe that one would be more likely to flip heads than the other? I hope not!

The same concept applies to roulette. An American roulette wheel has 18 red spots, 18 black spots, and 2 green spots. The chances of getting red on any one spin are 18/38. If you just saw nine reds in a row, what is the likelihood of getting black on the next spin?

18/38, same as it ever was.

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Read Bernoulli’s Law before start betting

In the 17th century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli created the Law of Large Numbers, and asserted that even the stupidest man understands that the larger the sample, the more likely it is to represent the true probability of the observed event. For betting, this is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy, and can be a very costly misconception.

The Law of Large Numbers

Using a fair coin toss as an example (where the chance of hitting heads and tails has an equal 50% chance), Bernoulli calculated that as the number of coin tosses gets larger, the percentage of heads or tails results gets closer to 50%, while the difference between the actual number of heads or tails thrown also gets larger.

It’s the second part of Bernoulli’s theorem that people have a problem understanding – which has led to it being coined the “Gambler’s Fallacy”. If you tell someone that a coin has been flipped nine times, landing on heads each time, their prediction for the next flip tends to be tails.

This is incorrect, however, as a coin has no memory, so each time it is tossed the probability of heads or tails is the same: 0.5 (a 50% chance).

Bernoulli’s discovery showed that as a sample of fair coin-tosses gets really big – e.g. a million – the distribution of heads or tails would even out to around 50%. Because the sample is so large, however, the expected deviation from an equal 50/50 split can be as large as 500.

This equation for calculating the statistical standard deviation gives us an idea what we should expect:

0.5 × √ (1,000,000) = 500

While the expected deviation is observable for this many tosses, the nine-toss example mentioned earlier isn’t a large enough sample for this to apply.

Therefore the nine tosses are like an extract from the million-toss sequence – the sample is too small to even-out like Bernoulli suggests will happen over a sample of a million tosses, and instead can form a sequence by pure chance.

Applying Distribution

There are some clear applications for expected deviation in relation to betting. The most obvious application is for casino games like Roulette, where a misplaced belief that sequences of red or black or odds or even will even out during a single session of play can leave you out of pocket. That’s why the Gambler’s Fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy.

In 1913, a roulette table in a Monte Carlo casino saw black come up 26 times in a row. After the fifteenth black, bettors were piling onto red, assuming the chances of yet another black number were becoming astronomical, thereby illustrating an irrational belief that one spin somehow influences the next.

Another example could be a slot machine, which is in effect a random number generator with a set RTP (Return to Player). You can often witness players who have pumped considerable sums into a machine without success embargoing other players from their machine, convinced that a big win must logically follow their losing run.

Of course, for this tactic to be viable, the bettor would have to have played an impractically large number of times to reach the RTP.

With an understanding of the Law of Large Numbers, and the law (or flaw) of averages consigned to the rubbish bin, you won’t be one of Bernouilli’s ‘stupid men’.